We’re still arguing about the 2020 election (heck, some people are still arguing about the Civil War), but it’s time to move on. This being Virginia, we have a new election coming at us in 2021.
Come November, we’ll vote on a new governor, along with a lieutenant governor and attorney general, plus all 100 seats in the House of Delegates.
We’re starting to get some polling on how things stand, so let’s chew on the first bones we’ve been thrown — two separate polls by YouGov and Christopher Newport University’s polling arm at the Wason Center for Civic Leadership.
The two polls have different numbers, but both paint the same big picture — former Terry McAuliffe leads the Democratic field, and state Sen. Amanda Chase leads the Republican field, but neither is especially popular, and neither should count the nomination as a certainty.
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Let’s deal with the Democrats first.
YouGov ranked the candidates like this: Undecided 46%, McAuliffe 33%, state Sen. Jennifer McClellan 6%, former Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy 6%, Del. Lee Carter 5% and Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax 4%.
CNU’s poll found: Undecided 49%, McAuliffe 26%, Fairfax 12%, Foy and McClellan both at 4%, Carter 1%.
Our takeaway: Democrats aren’t really keen on McAuliffe’s comeback bid but don’t have a good option yet. McAuliffe’s numbers seem pretty weak. You’d think a former governor would be able to muster more than a quarter or a third of the vote. That said, you’d rather be McAuliffe than any of the other candidates right now. He’s got a lead, lots of money and lots of endorsements. Plus, he faces a divided field so doesn’t need a majority vote, just a plurality. It should be remembered that McAuliffe failed to win the nomination in 2009, then was the only candidate for the party nomination in 2013. Since then, the party’s base has shifted well to the left. McAuliffe, who fancied himself a friend of business (and natural gas pipelines), is not the natural candidate of the party’s left wing, which is why virtually all his press releases tout his “big and bold” proposals on one thing or another — as if those adjectives will placate the left. Unless and until his opponents coalesce around a single candidate, McAuliffe remains the candidate to beat, even if the party doesn’t seem especially excited about that at the moment.
The main difference between these two polls is how much support Fairfax has — or doesn’t have. In terms of public activity, he’s been nearly silent compared to McAuliffe, McClellan and Foy, so it’s possible the CNU numbers simply reflect name recognition. Also of note: An earlier poll by Mason-Dixon, which simply measured name recognition and favorability rankings, concluded that “McClellan may be the most serious contender for McAuliffe” because, among Democrats, she had the best ratio of favorable-to-unfavorable name recognition.
On to the Republicans.
YouGov showed: Undecided 54%, Chase 19%, Pete Snyder 10%, former House Speaker Kirk Cox 6%, Merle Rutledge 5%, Glenn Youngkin 3%, Kurt Santini 1%, Sergio de la Pena less than 1%.
CNU: Undecided 55%, Chase 17%, Cox 10%, Snyder 6%, Youngkin3%, with no other candidate hitting 1%.
Our takeaway: Republicans are even more undecided than Democrats are. Chase has carved out a niche for herself — “Trump in heels” is the phrase many use — but is hardly a commanding presence. As with Democrats, the question is who emerges as the leading challenger. Cox brings establishment gravitas, but that may not be a selling point with a lot of today’s Republicans. That’s where one of the candidates out of the business community might have an advantage. Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo offers up this analysis: “The underlying friction between Chase’s fervent Trumpism and Cox’s Reagan Republican credentials could crack the party and open the door for Snyder or another contender.” This could be a defining race for Republicans nationally: What kind of Republican will emerge in the post-Trump era? Or are we really in a post-Trump era?
Also of note: That Mason-Dixon poll of name recognition/favorability rankings found that among an admittedly small subsample of Republicans, Chase had better favorability ratings than Cox.
Now, here’s where we weigh in with questions of our own: Which of these candidates will commit to a debate in Southwest Virginia? Candidates for governor always hold a debate in Northern Virginia’s; that’s just accepted practice now. We’d like to see the same tradition established for Southwest Virginia as a way to force candidates, at least for an hour, to address the unique issues confronting the region. We do have some history to go on: In 2013, the gubernatorial candidates debated in Blacksburg. In 2017, they met at the University of Virginia’s College at Wise. This time around, the Appalachian School of Law in Grundy has offered to host a debate. Nine state legislators from Southwest Virginia — both Republicans and Democrats — have endorsed this.
So far, just two candidates have formally committed — Foy on the Democratic side, Cox on the Republican side. If they wind up as the nominees, then we’re guaranteed a debate. However, that’s just one possible combination. There are five Democrats and anywhere from six to nine Republicans, depending on whether you go by who has filed paperwork and who has said they intend to run. That means there are really 30 or maybe 45 different configurations possible. The longer we wait, the easier it will be for the eventual nominees to find a reason not to debate in Southwest Virginia. Realistically, Democrats have little interest in a part of the state where they’re not going to get many votes. Republicans don’t have a vested interest, either. The identity of the next governor will get decided in the suburbs of the urban crescent, not Southwest Virginia. That’s why party activists in both parties — along with those in the region writing checks to the candidates — ought to insist that their favorite candidate sign on to the Appalachian School of Law debate. If they can’t do even commit to a single evening in Southwest Virginia during the campaign, how much interest do we really expect them to pay attention to Southwest Virginia once one of them is in office? Or do we already know the answer to that?
